Can you accurately value bitcoin or gold?

The simple answer is – No.

You cannot value something that produces no income, therefore you cannot accurately put a price on Bitcoin or gold. Anybody who tells you they can is either a time traveller or a liar, wether they know it or not.

Neither of these ‘commodities’ are businesses, nor can they increase what they offer beyond the obvious. For example a business can retain earnings, buy back shares if they believe they offer value, acquire new companies, increase their dividend etc.. therefore when someone ‘predicts’ the future price of either Bitcoin or Gold, they’re predicting (or rather hoping they can predict) what the general public’s views will be regarding the future price. Or more fittingly, what the general public believe the general public’s views will be regarding the price at that time and so on..

To choose a metaphor for comparison – If you go into your favourite brand and choose a pair of shoes, could you accurately estimate how much they’d cost? You could probably get close. But could you accurately estimate what the majority of total strangers think they’d cost? We can all admit it becomes more difficult and therefore less likely. But valuing gold or bitcoin is like trying to predict what the total strangers think the rest of the total strangers think they should cost.. and if you can accomplish this then you’re far superior than me!